A 53-year-old Soviet spacecraft is set to plummet back to Earth this week

Kosmos 482, a 53-year-old Soviet spacecraft, is set for reentry, potentially impacting Earth.

: Kosmos 482, a Soviet spacecraft launched in 1972 as a failed Venus mission, is reentering Earth's atmosphere after 53 years in orbit. It's unclear if the spacecraft will remain intact or fragment, with potential impact areas on either side of the equator. Astrophotographer Ralf Vandebergh's images suggest a parachute on the spacecraft, though it's uncertain if it will function. The spacecraft's reentry is compared to meteorite fragments due to its projected speed and impact energy.

Kosmos 482, launched by the Soviet Union on March 31, 1972, aimed to explore Venus but failed to reach its destination due to insufficient engine velocity. Trapped in Earth's orbit for 53 years, the unmanned spacecraft is now predicted to plummet back to Earth between May 8 and 12, 2025. The reentry area covers land on both sides of the equator, though the exact location remains uncertain at this time. Kosmos 482 could potentially crash land in one piece or disintegrate, scattering debris across a vast region, posing certain risks.

In its original mission, Kosmos 482 was tasked with orbiting Venus. However, a failed engine burn led the craft into an elliptical path around Earth. The resulting orbit stretches from 130 to 6,089 miles (210 by 9,800 kilometers) above the planet's surface. The spacecraft remains notable for its durable design, intended to withstand the harsh conditions of a Venusian atmosphere, raising speculation about whether it might impact Earth intact.

Ralf Vandebergh, an astrophotographer, recently provided images suggesting that a parachute may have been deployed from Kosmos 482. He observed a similar phenomenon in 2014, and upon revisiting the spacecraft in 2024, saw the same signs, prompting him to report this possibility. Although speculation persists around the parachute's current state, experts suggest it may not aid the spacecraft's descent effectively.

The spacecraft, after its abortive Venus mission, broke into four segments, with two fragments descending over New Zealand shortly after launch. The large remaining pieces—a carrier bus and a lander probe—together make up a heavy spherical pressure vessel. Marco Langbroek, a satellite tracker, notes that Kosmos 482's current orbit spans latitudes from 52 degrees north to 52 degrees south, covering a vast swath of the Earth's surface.

As the spacecraft nears reentry, predictions indicate an impact speed around 150 miles per hour (242 kilometers per hour), comparable in energy to a 15- to 21-inch-long meteorite fragment. Despite the vast possibility of an oceanic landing spot given Earth's watery surface, there remains a non-zero risk of it striking an inhabited area, making the need for accurate tracking and impact forecast crucial as the reentry window narrows.

Sources: Gizmodo, NASA

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