Key study assesses the odds of being killed by an asteroid compared to various other frightening risks

Asteroid impacts, though rare, pose a greater fatal risk than rabies, per a detailed study.

: Researchers have calculated the odds of dying from various causes, including an asteroid impact, based on the population of Near-Earth objects. The study, detailed in the preprint website arXiv, reveals that while an asteroid impact is more likely to occur than a lightning strike, lightning remains more deadly if directly encountered. Interestingly, the study notes that, although no human has died from an asteroid impact, lightning claimed lives in the U.S. in 2024. NASA's DART mission demonstrates preparedness for deflecting such threats, showcasing the importance of these studies for planetary defense planning.

A new study published on arXiv by Nugent et al. (August 4, 2025) titled "Placing the Near-Earth Object Impact Probability in Context" uses the NEOMOD2 model and JPL data to estimate the frequency of near-Earth object (NEO) impacts over 140 meters in diameter. The findings suggest that the lifetime odds of being killed by such an asteroid are higher than those of being struck by lightning, but still extremely small. The main concern lies in the fact that a single impact could cause massive casualties, making its lethality per event far greater than hazards like rabies.

The study emphasizes that while the probability of a deadly asteroid strike is rare, its potential consequences elevate its comparative risk profile. The combination of a low frequency with catastrophic potential places it in a unique category of global threats, where the magnitude of the outcome justifies attention despite the rarity.

Historical risk estimates provide additional perspective. A 1994 Nature paper placed the odds of dying from an asteroid impact at roughly 1 in 200,000, and a 2013 Wired article reaffirmed that this probability is higher than lightning strikes but far lower than deaths caused by accidents or common natural disasters. Even so, the scale of destruction from a large asteroid impact could far exceed that of localized threats.

Compared with other risks, asteroid impacts remain low on an individual's list of dangers. Everyday hazards such as traffic accidents, disease, or even extreme weather events have much higher probabilities. However, their consequences are typically confined in scale, unlike the potential for global catastrophe from a major impact.

The research serves to contextualize asteroid risk among other frightening hazards, balancing statistical probability with potential scale. It reinforces the value of ongoing detection and mitigation programs aimed at identifying and tracking hazardous NEOs before they pose an imminent threat.

Sources: Gizmodo, arXiv (Nugent et al.), Wired, Nature

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