NAND flash industry faces weak demand and oversupply, but experts predict second-half recovery

NAND flash faces oversupply and weak demand; experts see recovery in late 2025.

: The NAND flash industry is experiencing decreased demand and oversupply, leading to lower prices. Despite this slump, experts predict a recovery in the latter half of 2025 as demand stabilizes and production adjustments occur. The increasing need for enterprise SSDs, fueled by AI advancements and Nvidia products, along with China's trade-in subsidies, are expected to drive this recovery.

The NAND flash industry is currently battling mounting challenges of oversupply and weak demand, with prices consecutively dropping for several months. Major industry players like Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix/Solidigm have cut production, responding to redesigned demand forecasts that have lowered expected growth rates from 30% to between 10% and 15% for 2025.

Experts, including Shrish Pant from Gartner, remain optimistic about a potential second-half recovery in 2025, predicting increased bit shipments for SSDs as demand stabilizes. Contributors to this anticipated rebound include heightened demand for enterprise SSDs, driven by Nvidia's new products and AI deployment, along with China's policies that boost smartphone sales and deplete existing NAND inventory.

Further, developments such as DeepSeek's reduced power requirements for AI-enabled devices could spur storage needs, while a cyclical pattern in the memory market will continue to influence prices based on purchasing behavior. Nonetheless, recovery signs hinge on the alignment of revised supply strategies with future demand increases.

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