Nintendo predicts 15 million sales of the Switch 2 in the console's first year

Nintendo aims to sell 15 million Switch 2 units in its first fiscal year while managing potential supply challenges amid significant demand.

: Nintendo is forecasting sales of 15 million units for its upcoming Switch 2 console in its first full fiscal year ending March 2026. The original Switch achieved similar success with 15.05 million units sold in its initial year post-launch in 2017. Predictions of large sales stem from the more than 2.2 million pre-orders in Japan alone, highlighting strong demand despite concerns about potential supply issues. In addition to console sales, Nintendo is also anticipating the sale of 45 million games during the coming financial year.

Nintendo has projected that it will sell 15 million units of the upcoming Switch 2 console in its first fiscal year, ending in March 2026. This forecast is notable given that the original Switch sold 17.79 million units in its first 13 months. The Switch 2, expected to launch at a higher price point around $449.99, is still anticipated to perform similarly thanks to continued global interest and the enduring popularity of Nintendo’s gaming ecosystem.

Market analysts have responded to the forecast with mixed reactions. While some view the estimate as conservative, citing the rapid sellout of pre-orders in regions like Japan and North America, others agree it is a cautious approach given potential supply chain issues. In Japan alone, over 2.2 million pre-order applications have already been registered, surpassing Nintendo’s internal expectations. This overwhelming demand may push actual sales beyond the forecasted 15 million, assuming supply can keep up.

Nintendo also expects to sell around 45 million Switch 2 software units during the same period. The strong software sales projection is supported by a robust lineup of first-party titles expected to launch alongside or shortly after the hardware. Franchises like Zelda, Mario Kart, and Pokémon are likely to drive both hardware and software momentum, just as they did with the original Switch.

One key factor influencing Nintendo’s cautious optimism is the risk of U.S. trade tariffs. The company acknowledged that tariffs on Chinese imports could impact profitability and has signaled it may raise prices or shift production in response. To mitigate this, Nintendo has already diversified its manufacturing base, moving some operations to Vietnam and Cambodia, which could buffer the potential impact.

Despite a 46.6% year-over-year drop in hardware sales for the aging original Switch, Nintendo remains bullish on its future. The Switch 2’s early demand signals a strong product cycle ahead, and with a growing install base and ecosystem of games, the company seems well-positioned for another hit console launch.

Sources: Bloomberg, Nikkei Asia, VGC, Reuters, IGN

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